The New Voodoo - Barokong

Scott Sumner sums up contemporary stimulus proposals well 2. The claim that extended unemployment benefits---paying people not to work---will lead to more employment, by boosting AD. 3. The claim that more government spending can actually reduce the anggaran deficit, by boosting AD and growth. Note that in the simple Keynesian versi, even with no crowding out, monetary offset, etc., this is impossible. 4. More aggregate demand will lead to higher productivity. In the old Keynesian model, more AD boosted growth by increasing employment, not productivity. 5. Fiscal stimulus can boost AD when not at the zero bound, because . . . ? In all five cases there is almost no theoretical or empirical support for the new voodoo claims, and lots of evidence against. There were 5 attempts to push wages higher in the 1930s, and all 5 failed to spur recovery. Job creation sped up when the extended UI benefits ended at the beginning of 2014, contrary to the prediction of Keynesians. The austerity of 2013 failed to slow growth, contrary to the predictions of Keynesians. Britain had perhaps the biggest anggaran deficits of any major economy during the Great Recession, job growth has been robust, and yet productivity is now actually lower than in the 4th quarter of 2007.
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